I first read “Same as Ever” by Morgan Housel at the end of 2023.
I found his book to be insightful and had written a short review on it.
Now, in 2025, I continue to find fresh wisdom from re-reading his book. Things had moved on. In 2025, the theme of the year is tariffs. We had liberation day. The world was slapped with tariffs & Malaysia is no exception, settling with a reciprocal tariff of 19%. But still, in a changing world, we still can bank on timeless principles that never change to deal with these changes.
That is why the book is titled “Same as Ever”.
For this round, I’ll list down 4 new reflections on this book from an investor’s viewpoint.
They are as follows:
1. Invest in Preparedness, not in predictions
I wrote about this in 2023.
But still, I find this quote to be worth revisiting.
This quote sums up how we (as investors) can invest in a time of uncertainties.
Let’s talk about stock market crashes.
Are they to be predicted or to be prepared?
Many chose to predict when it might happen. If they feel that it might not happen “so-soon”, they might be willing to invest. If there is a widespread fear of an impending crash, most panic-sell. In many instances, such decisions are based on emotions and tend to cause markets to be volatile in the short-term. “Mood swings” tend to cause “market swings” in the short run.
I like Housel’s analogy of “how California views earthquakes” as an attitude towards preparing in advance for market crashes. Like earthquakes, we know it will happen. We just don’t know what scale or what time these earthquakes will happen.
For the state of California, its emergency teams (like fire departments) continue to train diligently and stay alert at all times as if the next earthquake could happen just around the corner. Instead of them “predicting” when the next quake will happen, they “prepare” for it. Likewise in investing, instead of “predicting” when the next crash will happen, let’s prepare for it.
That leads us to the next point.
2. Optimism + Pessimism
Are you naturally an optimistic person?
Or, are you more inclined to be pessimistic?
If you are naturally optimistic, you may be inclined to invest more as you are motivated by gains. This might leave you with lesser savings or buffer to mitigate emergencies.
But, if you are pessimist, you might hoard cash as if doomsday is coming tomorrow. Indeed, you have more than enough to survive a crash. But, such comes at the expense of “returns”.
Housel wrote: “Progress requires optimism and pessimism to co-exist.”
It’s like the optimists build a plane and the pessimists prepare safety belts and parachutes. They co-exist to manufacture aircraft.
I believe investing operates in a similar fashion.
First, on a personal level, I’ll exercise some level of optimism by investing. At the same time, it is prudent (pessimism) to set aside cash as reserves even if cash generates little yield.
Second, let’s take stock investing as an example. I’ll prefer to invest in companies that will invest operating cash flows for growth. That’s optimism at work. But still, I would also prefer them to be prudent in their financial management, ensuring that their current ratios are 1+ and conservative in their debt levels. That’s pessimism at work.
So, if you are naturally optimistic, learn to appreciate a little pessimism.
Likewise, if you are pessimistic in nature, you may want to try to look at the brighter side in life.
Hence, balancing the two is key.
3. Expectation versus Reality
Let me ask this – “Are you happy with your investing returns?”
Here, the key word is “happy” and happiness, I find, is very subjective. In a way, it’s subjected to our personal expectations of an outcome and the reality of it.
For instance, many start investing with an expectation of achieving greater returns than what the banks and pension funds are offering. With that, some did well, attaining higher returns (whether it is skill or pure luck) from their investments. In this case, they would obviously be happy. But, in most cases, many more lost money or at best, attaining returns subpar to FD rates and the EPF. In this case, they would obviously be unhappy about it. Hence, some of them quit altogether and believe that “investing is risky”.
If you are new to investing, it is important to set expectations right.
If you set a high bar (achieving at least 15% a year), you might be setting yourself for failure and chances are, you’ll quit investing altogether when realities do not meet your expectations.
But, if you choose to set a lower bar (achieving 5% a year) and achieve it, you may find yourself to be a little more confident about investing.
Small wins that build confidence might be key to consistent investing for the long run. I’m sure in the long-term, you will definitely be happy with your investment returns if they are done correctly.
4. It’s Supposed to Be Hard
Here is an infamous quote on investing.
Investing is simple but not easy.
Take Buffett’s investments in American Express.
He invested US$ 1.3 billion into its shares via Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK) in the 1990s.
Since then, BRK collected US$ 3.4 billion in dividends from American Express.
Today, these shares are worth US$ 44.7 billion.
How nice it is to invest US$ 1.3 billion to earn such massive dividends and capital gains.
What is his secret sauce?
Buffett holds on after investing in them – no trading, no prediction, no market timing, no action or whatsoever. Nothing. That’s why investing is as simple as buying a company with moats that will grow its earnings consistently, allowing time to do the compounding magic.
But, why is investing not easy?
Think about it.
Buffett held onto American Express over 3½ decades. There were multiple market crashes such as the dotcom bubble in 2000, the global financial crisis in 2008, and COVID-19 in 2020. To him, he saw American Express’s stock price plunging 50.9%, 79.3% and 42.9% in a short time period during each of the above crashes. For most, they will panic-sell. For Buffett, despite the ups and downs in the stock market, he held on. That’s not easy psychologically to do but he did it. This is why there are very few “Buffett’s” in the world of stock investing.
Hence, talking about long-term investing is easy.
Doing it can be tough as long-term investing is about surviving multiple periods of short-term. As investors, we will be tested in these short-term periods of crisis.
In that context, long-term investing is supposed to be simple in logic but hard psychologically for most people.
Conclusion:
I still find “Same as Ever” an enjoyable book to read and would recommend anyone to read it.
You can grab a copy:
Link:
Same of Ever: Timeless Lessons on Risk, Opportunity and Living a Good Life
Hopefully, in our rapidly changing world today, you will find lessons that are useful to make wiser decisions, not just in investing but in every aspect of our lives.
Enjoy reading!
